The longest government shutdown in United States history appears to be on the brink of finally ending after 43 days, with the House of Representatives slated for a Wednesday vote on a funding bill.
The closure of the federal government has caused weeks of havoc for air travelers, especially in recent days as the FAA required airlines to trim flight schedules by up to 6% at the nation’s 40 busiest airports due to staffing shortages among unpaid air traffic controllers.
But even if the shutdown ends this week, that doesn’t mean air travel will go back to normal right away. In fact, experts say that travelers should prepare for possible cancellations and delays to continue into the Thanksgiving travel period.
“Even with the shutdown deal in place, the reality is that air-traffic staffing doesn’t reset overnight,” said Suzanne Morrow, CEO of InsureMyTrip. “Thanksgiving week could still see long lines, canceled flights, and stressed travelers.”
The air traffic controller workforce has also been shrinking as the shutdown wears on. U.S. Secretary of Transportation Sean Duffy recently said that as many as 15 to 20 controllers are retiring every day of the shutdown, up from an average of four per day pre-shutdown.
“The real question is whether air traffic controllers snap right back into the rhythm they were in before the shutdown,” said Brett Snyder of Cranky Concierge. “I fear there may be lingering damage with controllers who might not return, especially since we will probably have this exact same fight at the end of January again.”
Staffing issues in control towers have disrupted travel for more than 5 million airline passengers since the shutdown began on October 1, according to data from Airlines for America (A4A), an industry group representing the largest six passenger carriers in the US.
“The staffing crisis has triggered broad secondary impacts—including late aircraft arrivals, crew legality issues, and equipment mispositioning—all of which prolong recovery,” A4A said.
As such, airlines will likely need several days to ramp up back to normal operations again, as they adjust factors in their network, like aircraft positioning and crew placement. “Airlines’ reduced flight schedules cannot immediately bounce back to full capacity right after the government reopens,” A4A said. “It will take time, and there will be residual effects for days.”
Further complicating matters is the fact that Duffy won’t say when the FAA’s flight restrictions might begin to roll back, leaving open the potential that the schedule reductions could remain in place even after a deal is struck in Congress.
“We’re going to wait until we see the data on our end before we take out the restrictions in travel,” Duffy said in a press conference on Tuesday, referring to various safety statistics like loss of separation between aircraft in the sky. “But it depends on controllers coming back to work.”
With an unclear timeline, it’s hard to say what might happen during Thanksgiving travel. “Airlines will get back to normal when the FAA allows it and controller staffing permits it,” Snyder says. “We have no idea when that may or may not be, but I would imagine the airlines will do everything they possibly can to run a regular operation during Thanksgiving.”
Airlines will need to find a way to accommodate historic amounts of passengers that will take to the skies next week. A4A is expecting a record-breaking number of 31 million passengers to travel during the Thanksgiving travel period, which this year stretches from about November 21 to December 1.
If a funding deal isn’t passed by the House on Wednesday, Duffy warned of “massively more disruptions,” on Friday, Saturday, and Sunday as the FAA cuts increase to 10% of flights at the 40 busiest airports.
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